What Has Gone Wrong With Liverpool?

To say that Liverpool's title defence this season has not gone to plan would be an understatement, they have already conceded in the title race very early in February, have now has four home games in a row for the first time since the 1920s and a strong possibility of missing out on Champions League football next season as the Reds sit sixth in the Premier League table with 40 points, five points behind fourth-place West Ham United, nine points behind Leicester City and Manchester United, and a staggering nineteen points behind league leaders Manchester City. Even if they win their remaining thirteen league games, they will finish with 79 points. Twenty points off their points tally last season when they stormed to the Premier League title. So what has gone so wrong for Jurgen Klopp's side?

Bad Injury Luck

Now, this season was going to a weird one. With no sort of pre-season to prepare for the season plus the congested fixture list this season. Especially, for a club like Liverpool, who are in the Champions League, there was a possibility of players missing a good chunk of the season due to injury and coronavirus. Every club in the Premier League has suffered a major injury setback but Liverpool has gotten some rotten injury luck this season. The biggest one is defender Virgil van Dijk who is out for the season with an ACL injury. However, season-ending injuries for Joe Gomez and Joel Matip have compounded Liverpool's woes as they are without any of their senior central defenders for the remainder of the season. Midfield has also been hit with injuries with Thiago, Alex-Oxlade Chamberlain, James Milner, Naby Keita, Fabinho and now Jordan Henderson missing many games this season. That's not to mention Diogo Jota and Xherdan Shaqiri. This has negatively impacted Liverpool and their tactical setup. Unsurprising they are making fewer pressures than they did last season and the setup in midfield and central defence has chopped and changed, with eighteen different centre-half pairing since van Dijk's injury and only Gini Wijnaldum has been a regular in midfield. Last season, you knew who was playing for Liverpool in midfield and defence, now that's a coin toss.

Not Striking Fast Enough

The injuries to Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez would have forced Liverpool to get at most two central defenders in the first weeks of the January transfer window. They did sign two centre-backs in Ben Davies from Preston North End and Ozan Kabak from Schalke. However, both signings were done on the deadline day after Joel Matip suffered a season-ending injury against Tottenham. Liverpool has made some gambles this season that has not paid off with Matip hoping to stay fit for the rest of the season. Despite Matip's patchy injury record. The biggest gamble was not signing a replacement for Dejan Lovren, who left in the summer, leaving with three senior central defenders and Fabinho as an auxiliary central defender. That has come to backfire hard on Liverpool, stating why they did not a central defender in the summer and specifically, why a centre-back was not lined up at the beginning of the January window. Liverpool has been renowned over the past few years for their smart, quick dealings in the transfer window but the signings of Davies and Kabak took too long with does not give the players time to settle with their new teammates, as seen with the mishap between Kabak and Alisson against Leicester City. For Liverpool to play in the Champions League next season, they need Kabak and Davies to hit the ground running quickly cause the margin of error is getting smaller.

The End of the Front Three?

Liverpool's front three of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah have terrorized opposition defences for close to four years now together. They have scored 290 goals together since August 2017 in all competitions, 189 in the Premier League and have been pushed Liverpool in its recent success. This season looks to be their last season together following the signing of Diogo Jota but there has been a drop-off from the front three this season particularly Roberto Firmino. The Brazilian has played more games under Jurgen Klopp than any other player, becoming the lynchpin of the attack. His technical ability plus his tenacity to lead the press has made him an enduring figure at Anfield despite his relatively poor goal output to Mane and Salah. This season, Firmino has only six league goals but his underlying numbers shows a big concern. His expected goals have dropped from 13.5 last season to 9.8 and his shots per 90 have dropped from 3.01 last season to 2.79 this season. His tenacity has also dropped. From 694 pressures last season, he's making 342 pressures with less pressure made in the final third. With him dropping deeper, Salah and Mane are also dropping deep which reduces their ability to counter quickly. With the likes of Shaqiri, Origi and Minamino not gaining the trust of Klopp, there has been little rotation and with all of them approaching 30 very soon, the attack needs a makeover, whether it's a Firmino-type clone or a pure number nine is a different question.

Conclusion

A drop-out was expected from Liverpool given the high standards they set for themselves over the past two to three years. However, this season shows Liverpool needs a shake-up over the next 12 to 24 months with some players' contracts ending in 2022 or 2023 and for some better injury luck next season. Simply, Liverpool's title defence has not been good enough from the players, Klopp and his backroom staff to Fenway. Now, they need to finish in the Champions League places for this season to get worse. With the pandemic still on, it will be a financial disaster for Liverpool to miss out on the Champions League next season and will alter their transfer dealings in the summer from signings to sales. What is on Liverpool's side is that everyone else around them has not been great over the whole season and with games against Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Aston Villa to come in their final 13 games in the league, they need to find a good vein of form and quickly.